Dire Winter Covid Prediction
I Hope This Prediction Is Wrong
11/17/2021
I have a feeling based upon a non-verified hypothesis, the seasonality of Covid, and recent trends that this winter is going to a worse winter as far as Covid goes. I pray this prediction is wrong. As a nation, last winter our 7-day average new cases peak was January 10th, and it was 255,000 new cases. Our daily Covid death peak was January 13th, and it was 3,347 deaths. I predict our Winter spike will be 450,000 cases and our deaths will be 4,900 this winter unfortunately.
As far as the reasoning for this prediction here goes. First going into Winter last year around this time, we had a large spike in cases. Last year we had zero vaccinations. This year we will be 60%ish vaccinated and we will be starting a booster campaign. We are also currently vaccinating children (though at a lower dose). It appears as if there is a spike in cases and deaths that coincides with first doses and booster doses. We do not have a case trend on children’s vaccinations. Look at just a few different countries that have done these mass vaccination campaigns and the Covid death spikes that follow. Keep in mind, we start all of these campaigns with the more vulnerable elderly. This is my guess as to why the deaths spike and then subside. See a few below, note the red number are the %vaccinated in the country.
Israel
Brazil
United Kingdom
Uruguay
India
Serbia, notice they were trending down until vaccination.
My hypothesis is that Covid vaccines make us more susceptible to Covid infections in the two week period after the first shot and booster shots. Last year we were not vaccinated or vaccinating during the change in weather, this year we will be both vaccinated and administering booster shots. If you look at the Pfizer clinical trial data, they did not start recording data until two weeks after the second dose. This means anyone that contracted Covid during that period was not counted in either the placebo group or the vaccine group. I suspect there were many non-reported cases during this time, only Pfizer knows. If counted, I believe this would have made the overall effectiveness lower. After having a debate about how Covid deaths are higher on the same day of 2021 vs. 2020 by a large margin with a pro-vaccine person, they were not convinced of my “Vaccines Not Working” argument because we don’t know if it was vaccinated or unvaccinated dying. All the articles that show vaccinated vs. unvaccinated reference a study that compares vaccinated vs. “not fully vaccinated”. See what they did there. These articles try to show how mostly unvaccinated (which is actually “not fully vaccinated”) are hospitalized more than the vaccinated. The problem with these studies is that anyone that catches Covid shortly after a jab is considered “not fully vaccinated” or in the articles' view unvaccinated. This makes the vaccine look more effective than it is and discounts all of those that may have been more susceptible to Covid because of being recently vaccinated.
From the linked letter:
“Hospital Admissions Increase Dramatically & Approximately 90% of All Admitted Patients Have Received the COVID-19 Vaccine Even Though Less than 50% of the Community the Hospital Serves is Vaccinated.”
Ms. Conrad was reporting this information to VAERS on her own time and was eventually fired for sounding the alarm. A lot of these admissions were Covid patients that had been recently vaccinated. These patients would be considered “not fully vaccinated” or unvaccinated in the eyes of the media. Ms. Conrad’s observations were in March and April of 2021 at time when Covid was generally declining or at least flattening out in cases, but we were vaccinating at a furious pace.
Secondly, when the weather turns colder, we see an uptick in cases. Most of the population centers that gets cold weather starting in November (the northeast) had a mild fall compared to fall of 2020. This will delay the spike that is just starting to happen now. Michigan is warning of having its worse spike yet. Look at these states.
Vermont
New Hampshire
Minnesota
Michigan
The last trend to look at are the most vaccinated countries in the world that are currently boosting like (Gibraltar), are going into cold weather and boosting (Germany), or are just getting cold (Russia, Austria, Norway, Iceland, Denmark). All are higher than they were the same time last year and most still climbing. Gibraltar (the most vaccinated place on earth) has cancelled all Christmas celebration and has never gotten rid of masks. This is happening in more than just the countries I listed, but they are all higher than the same time last year being unvaccinated and rising.
Gibraltar (99% Fully Vaxxed, starting boosters)
Germany (70% One Dose, 68% Fully Vax, 4.6% Boosted)
Russia
Austria (62% Fully Vaxxed, Currently Locking Down All Unvaccinated)
Norway (78% One Dose, 70% Fully Vaxxed)
Iceland (82% Fully Vaxxed)
Denmark (72% Fully Vaxxed)
All of this does not show a good outlook for our fight against Covid. I hope that my prediction proves wrong.
I've wondering along the same lines.
For your friend questioning how many deaths are unvaccinated vs. vaccinated, we will never have a clear picture here in the US because of the terrible obfuscation in reporting, as you point out. However, in the UK 80% of deaths are now fully or partially vaxxed:
https://nelsonsnews.substack.com/p/are-the-vaccines-effective-against
My one hope 🤞 for this winter is that we begin to get the tempering effect of herd immunity due to recovery from illness. The CDC recently estimated as many as 143 million Americans have recovered, which would be helpful and may begin to put downward pressure on the peaks of the seasonal waves. That said, I think vaccines exacerbate the problem in a number of ways, so who knows.