Vaccine Effectiveness (Macro View)

Are These Vaccines Working? Are Deaths and Cases Going Down or Up?

11/15/2021

How do we determine is a vaccine is “effective”?  This is not about vaccine safety, that is another article. 

I would say that if a vaccine works there are two pieces of data we should look at these are “daily new deaths” and “daily new cases”. 

Let’s first talk about the “daily new deaths”.  If the vaccine was effective on the macro scale, one would expect less Covid deaths with vaccine administration.  The narrative given to us is that these vaccines prevent deaths and hospitalizations. 

Let’s look at the USA.  The USA has been compiling Covid death data since the beginning of the pandemic.  Looking at the 7-day rolling average is the best data to look at because it gets rid of the reporting “noise” of lack of reports on weekends and huge death data dumps.  During an 81-day period of August 19 until November 7 there were more Covid deaths in 2021 than in 2020.  This period in 2020 had zero vaccinations and this period in 2021 had 186 million people fully vaccinated.  During this period there were about 59,000 MORE deaths in the USA with a large portion of people fully vaccinated than during the same period with no vaccinations in the previous year.  This supports the hypothesis that the vaccines have no effect or a negative effect. 

People that push the vaccines will say that these new variants are deadlier or more contagious.  What if the vaccines caused this?  Could it be these vaccines make us more susceptible to contracting (and spreading) Covid than a natural immune response?  This data shows at least there is no effectiveness of these vaccines.  It possibly shows that it has a negative outcome. 

It should be noted that this flip on November 8 of 2021 having better data than 2020 is not so much that deaths are going down in 2021, but rather, this is when the spike started last in 2020.  This was the reason the media was giving to cancel the holidays.  We have had a mild fall in the northeast, and I pray that we don’t get that November spike like we did last year.    

Now let’s look at the macro data of countries.  If the vaccine was effective, one would expect countries with higher vaccination rates to have less Covid death.  This chart was compiled on 10/5/2021, so the numbers are up to date as of then.  It would take time, but in the future, I will take more recent death data and compare the countries again.  One would expect the trend to be the more vaccinated the less Covid death.  The trend line is the opposite.  I should be noted the amount of lightly vaccinated countries that had little Covid death.  The chart is Covid deaths per million population vs shots administered per 100 people.   

Now let’s look at new case data.  There is some cherry picking here by me I admit.  I cannot do every country, but let’s look at some charts of heavily vaccinated countries and the most vaccinated state.  There are many more examples out there, notice that all four examples currently have higher case spikes than any spike pre-vaccination campaigns.    

Germany 70% One Dose, 68% Fully Vax, 4.6% Boosted

Norway 79% One Dose, 71% Fully Vax

Singapore 84% One Dose, 83% Fully Vaxxed

Vermont (Most Vaccinated US State) 90% Vaccinated of those over 12, 81% One Dose, 71% Fully Vaxed

This Vermont data doesn’t look like they are winning the Covid war as this articles contends. US News How Vermont Is Winning the COVID Vaccination War.

Conclusion: The hypothesis of “these vaccines will save lives and slow the spread of the virus” cannot be supported by this macro data as both cases are increasing in heavily vaccinated places and the increase in deaths just about everywhere the vaccine has been administered.